The probability of a Republican House takeover increased slightly over the last week with the mid-point probability estimate advancing by 2% to 72.2%. The number of projected GOP seats in the next Congress was unchanged at 225 seats.
Republican Senate prospects also brightened slightly over the past week. The macro model probability of a Republican Senate advanced by 3.7% to 24.3%, although the micro simulation model projected a takeover probability of only 6%, down from last weeks’ reading of 9%. However, the number of expected seats projected by both the micro and macro models advanced from last weeks’ reading. The micro model’s projection increased to 47.8 seats (up 0.3 seats), while the macro model’s projection improved by 0.5 to 48.7 seats.
