News from Gallup of a Romney +2 among likely voters shook up markets with Obama's re-election probability dropping below 60% for a brief period on Tuesday afternoon. Our pricing model showed a late afternoon early evening rebound to 63.1%.
Romney's momentum in our two Electoral College models continued. The macro model currently gives the President 295 electoral votes to Romney's 243. This represent a gain of eight electoral votes over the last 24 hours.
Romney's gain in the state base micro simulation model clocked in at plus 6 with the President leading 291-247 down from 297-241 on Monday.
The Senate micro simulation model's results were largely unchanged from Monday projecting 49 Republican seats. The probability of 50+ Republican seats came in at 41%.
Stay tuned for more details on the range of results produced by the State based simulation model and what it is saying about the race for President at a more granular level.
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