Obama Looking for a Real Recovery

While this applies to the recovery America has experienced courtesy of the President's economic policies, the bulk of this post applies to our models.

But let's look at the economy for minute. Economic growth a total of 6.7% since recession ended three years ago. Average of other recoveries was 15.2%. Lost output in real terms $1.1 trillion. And that gap will grow when GDP is updated on Friday.

Back to the election. Obama improved from our morning post. But on ou state based model his improvement was modest. It was modest enough that the Obama cheer leading squad would call it statistical noise if it was a gain for Romney.

Anyway our model puts the race at 277 Obama 261 Romney. Obama is in trouble if the current trend continues. While Romney's advance has slowed after his sharp post 1st debate advance, the underlying trend continues albeit at a slower pace. The pace is sufficient under our model to result in a Romney victory.

Our state based model currently projects Obama 277 Romney 261.

Senate news over the last 24 hours has focused on Indiana. While the Indiana data suggests a decline in GOP prospects it did not change our model's projection of 49 Republican seats.

Charts are posted below.