Tonight’s debate may well signal the outcome of the Presidential election. President Obama is standing on the edge of an electoral cliff. Unless he emerges with a resounding win, not just on debating points, on the underlying substantive issues, his reelection bid is doomed.
Unlike Nate Silver’s model at fivethirtyeight.com, the ElectionMarkets models have showed the President’s standing continuing to slide. Our latest read on the election using our state based modeling of InTrade data shows the President dropping below 280 electoral votes to a narrow advantage of 277 – 261. Prior to the first debate the model showed the President with 313 electoral votes.
More troubling for the President is that for the first time, the model has one of the four most frequently observed outcomes showing a Romney win with exactly 270 electoral votes.
The other three top outcomes out of 10,000 simulations of the elections have Romney at 257, 263 and 264.
The macro based model has the President’s reelection probability at 61% and on a downward trajectory.
The models do still show the President with a slight advantage. But the President’s task is large. The markets, as John McCain learned, will react quickly and with a vengeance if the President does not halt the Romney momentum. Mitt Romney still has work to do, but is in an enviable position where the trend is his friend.
Charts and updated analysis will be posted tonight after the debate.
As a side note, we had a marginal change in our state based Senate model which now projects Republicans emerging with 50 Senate seats. The range is now 49-50
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