News from Gallup of a Romney +2 among likely voters shook up markets with Obama's re-election probability dropping below 60% for a brief period on Tuesday afternoon. Our pricing model showed a late afternoon early evening rebound to 63.1%.
Romney's momentum in our two Electoral College models continued. The macro model currently gives the President 295 electoral votes to Romney's 243. This represent a gain of eight electoral votes over the last 24 hours.
Romney's gain in the state base micro simulation model clocked in at plus 6 with the President leading 291-247 down from 297-241 on Monday.
The Senate micro simulation model's results were largely unchanged from Monday projecting 49 Republican seats. The probability of 50+ Republican seats came in at 41%.
Stay tuned for more details on the range of results produced by the State based simulation model and what it is saying about the race for President at a more granular level.
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
President Senate Update 10-08
The numbers and a couple of quick observations.
President.
Macro Model
Probability of Victory
Obama 63.9%
Romney 36.1%
Electoral Votes
Obama 303
Romney 235
Micro Model (State based)
Electoral Votes Median
Obama 297
Romney 241
Electoral Votes Most Frequent
Obama 294
Romney 244
U.S. Senate Micro Simulation
Median estimate 49 Republicans
Most frequent 49 Republicans
Note: Probability of 50+ Republicans approximately 40%.
One interesting question over this week will be how Gallup releasing likely voter tracking impacts perceptions. Another will clearly be how voters perceive VP debate. Unlike 2008, voters have not been conditioned to dismiss Ryan in the way they were conditioned to dismiss, unfairly in my view, Sarah Palin.
President.
Macro Model
Probability of Victory
Obama 63.9%
Romney 36.1%
Electoral Votes
Obama 303
Romney 235
Micro Model (State based)
Electoral Votes Median
Obama 297
Romney 241
Electoral Votes Most Frequent
Obama 294
Romney 244
U.S. Senate Micro Simulation
Median estimate 49 Republicans
Most frequent 49 Republicans
Note: Probability of 50+ Republicans approximately 40%.
One interesting question over this week will be how Gallup releasing likely voter tracking impacts perceptions. Another will clearly be how voters perceive VP debate. Unlike 2008, voters have not been conditioned to dismiss Ryan in the way they were conditioned to dismiss, unfairly in my view, Sarah Palin.
Sunday, October 7, 2012
Romney Surge Continues
The post-debate surge for Mitt Romney in election markets continued through Saturday.
The surge is particularly evident in a number of swing states. For example, Florida has flipped to a slight Romney edge in the ElectionMarkets pricing model. And the gap has narrowed significantly in other swing states. (See table below.)
The momentum did not appear to be halted by the convenient news that the unemployment rate had dropped to 7.8% In September. It remains to be seen what if any impact this news will have on the Romney momentum.
Perhaps the timing leaves the public skeptical. Or perhaps the broader measure remaining at 14.7% informs the public that any improvement is small.
Of course if the labor force participation rate had not declined since Obama's inauguration in January 2009, the unemployment rate would be 10.7%. And the employment population ratio has only increased
by 0.5 percentage point from its cycle low.
Romney has picked up ten electoral votes in the macro based ElectionMarkets model and 20 electoral votes in the state based micro simulation model (table below). The macro version has Romney at 228 electoral votes, while the micro simulation puts his total at 245.
It will be interesting to see if this surge continues over the next week. If the Obama campaign does not stem the tide, the markets may reevaluate their current judgement that the President is still the favorite.
Democrats remain the favorite in the race to control the Senate albeit a narrow one. The ElectionMarkets state based model presently estimates Republicans capturing 49 seats.
The model is somewhat sensitive to changes at the Presidential level.
It would not take much movement to shift market perceptions toward the GOP. The model suggest that the seats that observers should watch closely include: Arizona, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Montana, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
The seats where Republicans can benefit most from continuing growth in enthusiasm for the Presidential ticket are Arizona, Montana, Virginia, Wisconsin.
Markets have not yet bought fully into Linda McMahon's strong campaign, but they are beginning to notice.
The surge is particularly evident in a number of swing states. For example, Florida has flipped to a slight Romney edge in the ElectionMarkets pricing model. And the gap has narrowed significantly in other swing states. (See table below.)
The momentum did not appear to be halted by the convenient news that the unemployment rate had dropped to 7.8% In September. It remains to be seen what if any impact this news will have on the Romney momentum.
Perhaps the timing leaves the public skeptical. Or perhaps the broader measure remaining at 14.7% informs the public that any improvement is small.
Of course if the labor force participation rate had not declined since Obama's inauguration in January 2009, the unemployment rate would be 10.7%. And the employment population ratio has only increased
by 0.5 percentage point from its cycle low.
Romney has picked up ten electoral votes in the macro based ElectionMarkets model and 20 electoral votes in the state based micro simulation model (table below). The macro version has Romney at 228 electoral votes, while the micro simulation puts his total at 245.
It will be interesting to see if this surge continues over the next week. If the Obama campaign does not stem the tide, the markets may reevaluate their current judgement that the President is still the favorite.
Democrats remain the favorite in the race to control the Senate albeit a narrow one. The ElectionMarkets state based model presently estimates Republicans capturing 49 seats.
The model is somewhat sensitive to changes at the Presidential level.
It would not take much movement to shift market perceptions toward the GOP. The model suggest that the seats that observers should watch closely include: Arizona, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Montana, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
The seats where Republicans can benefit most from continuing growth in enthusiasm for the Presidential ticket are Arizona, Montana, Virginia, Wisconsin.
Markets have not yet bought fully into Linda McMahon's strong campaign, but they are beginning to notice.
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