Markets Give Obama Edge ... But Will It Last?
According to the ElectionMarkets.com analysis of data from InTrade on September 14, President Obama currently enjoys the early advantage. Using the random simulation version of the model based upon state level data, President Obama currently enjoys an Electoral College advantage of 301-237. That result represents the median outcome of the simulation, the most frequently observed result was 297-241.
Obama wins 89% of the simulations in the September 14 data run.
The macro level model that is based on alternative data from InTrade give Obama an advantage of 298-240. Obama has a 65% chance of victory under the macro analysis.
Senate Control Sits on a Razor's Edge
The micro-simulation model gives Republicans a 65% probability of holding 50 or more seats after the election. The most frequently observed result was 50 followed by 51 and 49.
