Romney Still Advancing. WillSlow and Steady Win the Race?

Posted a brief comment earlier today pointing out that our state based model unlike the 538 now and fore casts hadn't yet shown any halt to Romney's momentum.

After updating our data, our State based model has Romney gaining another electoral vote cutting the President's advantage to 280 to 258.
The most frequent result had Romney with 263 to Obama's 275. Posted below is our distribution chart and a chart comparing our model's results with those generated by Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.

Our macro model has the President's win probability dropping back to the pre-second debate level of 62%.

Our Senate forecast remains stubbornly fixed at 49 Republican Senators with a range of 48 - 50 seats for the Republicans. Our State based model still gives Republicans more than a 40% chance of ending up with 50 or more seats.

538 vs. Election Markets: We Don't See the Bounce Yet

Over the last few days, Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight forecast and now vast have shown the President beginning to make a comeback.

Our state based model that uses InTrade data hasn't seen one yet. Here is a comparison of our results since the first Presidential debate.

A lot can and will change over the next two weeks, but here's what it looks like as of last evening.

The Post-Debate Bounce that Isn't

Yesterday we commented that our models showed the President with a quite modest one day bounce.

Our macro model saw the President's win probability rising to 65% from 62% on Wednesday evening. Our Thursday night update has that probability dropping back to 62%.

Prior to the debate our state based simulation gave the President a 282-256 electoral college advantage. On Wednesday evening we showed the President ticking up two electoral votes to 284. Our Thursday night model run puts the race at Obama 281 Romney 257.

Markets may change their views based upon upcoming events and new polls. Therefore we won't go as far as calling this the bounce that wasn't. For now we wii dub it "the bounce that isn't"

In the coming days we'll discuss some ancillary aspects of our micro model. Briefly, the model actually generates a range of implied probabilities for each state. The number we use for our comments use the median probability estimate.

We also run the model at the minimum and maxim price estate. In the last couple of days Romney's electoral vote count has exceeded 260. Today Romney clocked in at 263 electoral votes using the high end estimates and 251 at the low end.

The bottom line: our state based model continues to move incrementally toward Romney.

Our Senate model continues to be remarkably stable putting Republicans at 49 seats after the election with a range of 48-50.

Models Showing Limited First Day Post Debate Bounce for the President

Throughout the evening and much of today, the twitter world was talking about the big bounce President Obama was getting in InTrade markets.

Our models show a slight uptick for the President, but the question is whether it represents a reversal of the trend or simply a pause in Mitt Romney's momentum.

Prior to the debate, our macro model showed the President with a 62% chance of re-election. Our state based micro simulation model pegged the President's electoral college advantage at 282-256. The most frequent outcome of the simulation was 275-263. Twenty four hours after the debate, the President's probability of victory on our macro model has increased to 65%.

Our state based micro simulation model showed the President's advantage in the electoral college at 284-254 -- a gain of 2 electoral votes since the debate. The most frequent outcome in our simulation was Obama winning 281-257.

The key question is whether this is a new inflection point in the race or merely a pause in the prior trend toward Romney. Overall, we would characterize the markets as giving the President a modest, but small gain post debate.

Our Senate simulation model continued to remain quite steady and projects Republicans with 49 seats. The range using our various pricing scenarios is 48-50.

You can see our charts on electoral vote distribution and Senate probabilities below.

Ready, Set ...

Pre debate micro simulation
Median. O 282. R 256
Most Frequent. O 275 R 263

Macro. Probability win O 62%

Win Debate. 845 pm O 60.3%

Race Stable With Debate Looming

As political pundits prepare their debate analysis and campaigns ready their spin games, markets have taken a break. They too are waiting to see if President Obama is able to stop the Romney momentum.

ElectionMarkets will update our database before the debate so we can look for any signs of another inflection point in the race.

But on the night before the debate here's what our analysis of InTrade market data is saying.

President (macro model)
Probability of victory. O 62% R 38%
Electoral Votes. O 290 R 248

President (state based micro model)
Electoral Votes. O 285 R 253

Senate. Republican seats 49. Probability of 50+ 44%. 51+ 25%.

How Big Was Romney's Post-debate Bounce

The chart below shows how much the simulation shifted toward Romney from October 3 through yesterday.

Updated numbers later tonight.

Waiting for the Debate

Key numbers of the day
Bills 19 Cardinals 16. OT. 2 Byrd INTs key Bills victory.

President
Macro model O 292 R 246
Probability of win. O 62% R 38%
State based micro model O 283 R 255

Senate. 49 Republican seats