Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Obama Looking for a Real Recovery

While this applies to the recovery America has experienced courtesy of the President's economic policies, the bulk of this post applies to our models.

But let's look at the economy for minute. Economic growth a total of 6.7% since recession ended three years ago. Average of other recoveries was 15.2%. Lost output in real terms $1.1 trillion. And that gap will grow when GDP is updated on Friday.

Back to the election. Obama improved from our morning post. But on ou state based model his improvement was modest. It was modest enough that the Obama cheer leading squad would call it statistical noise if it was a gain for Romney.

Anyway our model puts the race at 277 Obama 261 Romney. Obama is in trouble if the current trend continues. While Romney's advance has slowed after his sharp post 1st debate advance, the underlying trend continues albeit at a slower pace. The pace is sufficient under our model to result in a Romney victory.

Our state based model currently projects Obama 277 Romney 261.

Senate news over the last 24 hours has focused on Indiana. While the Indiana data suggests a decline in GOP prospects it did not change our model's projection of 49 Republican seats.

Charts are posted below.

Are Markets About to Make Romney the Favorite?

Special Morning Update:  Updated data used in the ElectionMarkets Presidential race models.  The state based simulation shows Romney at 266 electoral votes to the President's 272.  (Distribution of outcomes chart posted below.)  Romney won in 44% of the simulations.  The most frequently observed outcome was 268.

As I have explained previously the model forecast is the median forecast.  Significantly, on the maximum price point Romney garnered 273 electoral votes.  This is the model's first showing of more than the magic 270 for Romney at any of the pricing points.  The low end price point showed Romney with 259 electoral votes.

For the last several days, I have given a chart that tracked our model estimates with Nate Silver's fore and now casts.  Here is how they stack up as of last night.  The ElectionMarkets model doesn't paint as pretty of a picture for the President as Silver's model does.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Romney March to 270 Continues

Romney moved closer to victory on all our metrics today.

Our macro model shows President Obama's probability of reelection dropping to 56% today.  The President's electoral vote count under our macro model dropped to 280. 

However, our electoral vote count under the state based model showed the President's position continuing to erode.  Our current assessment shows the President's advantage dropping to 275 - 263.  Here is our chart of the distribution of our results after simulating the election ten thousand times.


Several weeks ago when the Obama campaign was riding high we raised the question of when the Obama bubble would burst.  Without question, the bubble has burst.  The question is if the Obama campaign can reverse the Romney momentum. 

While the President maintains a slight advantage under our models, THE TREND IS NOT OBAMA'S FRIEND.  For a number of days we have compared the results of our state based model with those of Nate Silver at his New York Times blog  While fivethirtyeight has shown the President halting Romney's momentum, we find no evidence that is true.

We will post an updated chart comparing our results with those of fivethrityeight when Nate updates his model.

While the race for President is foremost in the mind of citizens, the race for control of the United States Senate is of great significance.  Our state based model currently projects Republicans with 50 seats after the election with a range of 49-50.