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Saturday, October 2, 2010

Daily Update: Republican House Seat Estimate Grows


The probability of Republican control advanced modestly to a midpoint estimate of 73.3%.  After remaining stable at 225 for more than a week, the estimated seat count for Republicans increased to a midpoint estimate of 227 seats.

In the Senate, the macro version of the model's midpoint estimate for GOP Senate seats is 48.9, compared to the micro version's midpoint estimate of 48.1.  Control probabilities stand at midpoint estimates of 24.9% in the macro version and 9.2% in the micro version.  It should be noted that models consider only candidates running as Republicans in determining the projected outcomes.



For a detailed table of probability estimates for individual Senate races see the table below

Friday, October 1, 2010

Weekly Update: September a Month of Progress for Republicans

Summary

Republicans entered September on a virtual role;  Republican electoral prospects improved across the board during the summer months.  September could best be characterized as a month of consolidation for Republicans.  To many observers the upset primary wins of Christine O'Donnell and Joe Miller did not lead to a reversal of Republican momentum.  It is true that Republican prospects for victory in Delaware are priced significantly lower than at the beginning of the month, but every time pundits suggested that the Republican momentum was shifting into reverse other races popped onto the radar.

Republicans are positioned well heading into the campaigns last month.  Markets clearly expect a Republican House takeover.  While markets still price the prospects of Republican Senate control at around 25%, the number of seats they expect Republicans to control in the next Congress continues to increase incrementally.