House GOP Plus 62 ... or More; Senate GOP 49+

House Republicans go into election day in their strongest position of the election season according to our model's evaluation of InTrade market data  (data download at 8:00 pm).  Republicans go into election day with a 92.8% probability of capturing the House of Representatives.  Our model suggests that they will emerge with at least 238 seats in the next Congress -- a gain of 61 over their post-2008 election total.  The midpoint estimate in our model would give Republicans a total of 239 seats and the upper end pricing point would yield 240 seats.  Data suggests that Republican chances of exceeding 65 seats gained are approaching 50%.   NOTE:  Updated Estimates will be posted throughout the day, even after the polls close.

On the Senate side, our micro and macro models are both projecting a Republican gain of at least eight seats.   Our micro model projects an upper limit gain of 8 seats for a total of 49.  Our macro model's upper limit pegs the gain at 49.5 seats. 


Seven states have defined the main battleground over the past couple of weeks.  Republicans are ahead in the probabilities in four of the seven (they need 6 for control) and Democrats in three. 

Tomorrow promises a great deal of volatility. The question is where we will see the volatility. Watch for volatility especially after noon Eastern time when the cybershpere will be overloaded with rumors concerning turnout, voter problems, and supposedly leaked exit polls.

We will offer our views of what the exit polls and early returns portend as soon as we get our hands on the data.  Check back around noon tomorrow for our detailed election viewing guide and further prognostication. 

Last evening our post noted that we expected election day to arrive with  the Neither Party contract overtaking the Democrat control contract in InTrade trading.  Our sense of the market trend has proven to be on the money.  We would expect to see continued declines in the Democrat control contract and gains in both the Republican control and Neither Party control contracts.

Throughout the evening we will also post updated probabilities for Republican control of the Senate based upon decided races.

The table below outlines the probabilities of Republicans gaining a specified number of the seven seats or more.  This is one of the metrics that will be updated throughout tomorrow evening.

For tonight, a couple of other charts are also pasted below that are self explanatory.  The House control chart, in particular, shows how the erosion of Democrats' position has deteriorated since passage of the Health care reform legislation.  Also, make sure you check out our updated InTrade play portfolion on our InTrade portfolio page.