NYT/CBS Q Polls Still Looking for Big Democratic Tilt

Looking Behind the Numbers in Florida and Ohio

Yesterday we examined a Virginia poll of likely voters from Virginia that was recently conducted jointly by the New York Times, Quinnipiac, and CBS News.  We noted that President Obama’s lead in that poll was predicated on an electorate that was even more heavily Democratic than indicated by 2008 exit polls.  In fact, if you recalculate top line results for that poll based off of the internal partisan indicators then Mitt Romney would be leading in Virginia unless the electorate is almost as Democratic as it was in 2008. 

Today, we’ll do an abbreviated version of that exercise for the new NYT/CBS/Q polls released for Florida, and Ohio.   WE ARE NOT ARGUING THAT THE PARTISAN MAKEUP OF LIKELY VOTERS IS DEFINITELY INCORRECT, BUT SUGGESTING THAT THEY RAISE INTERESTING QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW THE LIKELY VOTER MODEL IS CONSTRUCTED AND WHAT QUESTIONS THAT APPROACH RAISES.

Our view is that at the present time polling suggests that under a scenario where the electorate looks like 2008, President Obama would win if the election were held today.  If the electorate looks like 2004, then a Romney win is probable.

FLORIDA   NYT/CBS/Q Poll Obama 53 Romney 44

The following table pretty much says it all. In this poll Democrats hold a 9 percentage point edge in the pool of likely voters.  This compares to a Democratic advantage of 3 percentage points in 2008 AND a Republican advantage of 4 percentage points in 2004. 

Another way to look at this is the ratio of Democratic voters to Republican voters.   The poll suggests that there will be 1.33 Democratic voters for every Republican voter.  In 2008, the ratio was 1.09.  In 2004, it was 0.9.

Now this does not mean that President Obama is losing Florida.  It does suggest that a nine point advantage for Obama is highly unlikely here is what the race looks like at various partisan makeups.  The bottom line is that if Likely Voters were weighted to look more like 2004 than 2008, Romney would be leading in the poll.

A couple of other items jump out when looking at this poll’s internals.  While you have to be careful when looking at population subgroups based upon the sample size, here are a couple of interesting numbers that might seem inconsistent with the poll’s top line numbers.

·        Romney leads among Independents by a margin of 49%-46%.

·        Obama leads among Hispanics 55% - 41%.

·        Paul Ryan is viewed more favorably (38%-32%) by Independents than Joe Biden (37%-47%).

·        By a margin of 56% - 39%, Independent disapprove of President Obama’s job performance.

OHIO   NYT/CBS/Q Poll Obama 53 Romney 43

Similar to Florida, the composition of the electorate is critical to how you construct the pool of likely voters is critical.  In Ohio, a 2004 type electorate would move this in Romney’s direction.

This likely voter poll is slightly more Democratic than the 2008 electorate -- +9D vs. +8D.  The 2004 electorate was +5R.  The ratio of Democrats to Republicans in the poll was 1.35 to 1 vs. 1.26 in 2008 and 0.88 in 2004.  Small difference, but still more Democratic than 2008 voters.

Here are a couple of other interesting tidbits in the polls crosstabs.

 

·        Romney leads 47%-46% among Independents in this poll.

·        Obama leads by 60%-35% among women, Romney by 52-44% among men.

·        Among white voters Romney leads 49%-46%; 57%-40% with white men, and trails 53%-42% among white women.

Of course, party identification is not the only issue that can influence a poll’s outcome.  Other demographic factors such as gender, race, age and marital status can have a significant impact.  This is not to say the data behind the polls is wrong, but to remind readers that the interpretation of the data is also a major factor.

We won't know who is right until Election Day, but there is no question that the NYT/CBS/Q polls have a more generous view of this year's electorate for the President than even the 2008 turnout would justify.