GOP House Control Probability Hits New High; InTrade Adds Contracts Above Gains of 60

The probability of House control rose to new highs today topping 88% on our midpoint pricing estimate.  Our estimates are based on an analysis of InTrade pricing data.

Our model's estimate of Republican House seats retreated slightly with our midpoint estimate coming in at 234.  This equates with a 57 seat gain from Republicans' post-2008 election position.  Also of interest today was InTrade's addition of contracts for Republican gains of 65+, 70+, 75+, and 80+ seats.

After a day of high volatility yesterday in our seven "Most Competitive Senate Races," today proved more sedate with our model showing a change of more than 5% on our midpoint pricing estimate in only one of the seven races.  In Pennsylvania, Republican candidate Pat Toomey regained some of the ground he had given up to Rep. Joe Sestak.  Toomey's probability of victory advanced by 6.5% to 71.7%.

Republicans are now above a 50% probability of victory in 27 of 37 Senate races.  If they win all of those seats, they would emerge from the election with 50 seats meaning that they would need to triumph in either Washington or California to win control.

The table to the left shows the present standing on all three of our pricing estimates, while the next graph illustrates some of the recent volatility in the seven races.  As noted, the major change of the day was in Pennsylvania.  Pennyslvania may see continued moves of this magnitude on a daily basis as market traders evaluate daily tracking data that is now being released for that race.

Tomorrow could prove to bring about more volatility as we may see a new round of polling data on several of these races.

The probability of a Republican takeover of the Senate improved very slightly using both versions of our model.  Both models still suggest less that a 20% probability of a Republican takeover. 

Both versions of our model produced a seat estimate of between 48 and 49 seats today.  The last chart included today is the trend of Republican seat estimates under the micro version of our model.