Republicans topped 89% in their quest to control the U.S. House of Representatives in today's simulation. In the Senate, our macro model saw a very slight increase of just over 1% in the probability for a Republican controlled Senate. Our micro model moved a corresponding amount in the opposite direction.
The action remains focused in the seven states we've previously discussed. At this point it appears that Republicans will need to move California or Washington in their direction, but time is running out. If Republicans win in all the states we currently rate their win probability above 50%, they will emerge with 50 seats leaving them one short.
Other charts are posted below including Senate control, our micro model's Senate seat projection, and our projected House seats chart.
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