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Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Little Change the Morning After

President Obama failed to gain any traction from last nights debate. Our macro model's win probability measure actually saw the President's standing decline. His probability of reelection on this measure has dropped to 58%.

Our state based micro model has the President garnering 278 electoral vote to 260 for Mitt Romney. That is a move of 1 electoral towards Obama.

To put some perspective on the magnitude of Romney's recent gains, since the first debate. On October 2 our model reading was Obama 316 Romney 222. Romney has gained 38 electoral votes since then. Will the momentum continue? At least for now there is no indication that it will not

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