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Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Romney March to 270 Continues

Romney moved closer to victory on all our metrics today.

Our macro model shows President Obama's probability of reelection dropping to 56% today.  The President's electoral vote count under our macro model dropped to 280. 

However, our electoral vote count under the state based model showed the President's position continuing to erode.  Our current assessment shows the President's advantage dropping to 275 - 263.  Here is our chart of the distribution of our results after simulating the election ten thousand times.

Most disturbing for the Obama campaign is that for THE FIRST TIME OUR MAXIMUM PRICING POINT SHOWS MITT ROMNEY GETTING 270 ELECTORAL VOTES.

Several weeks ago when the Obama campaign was riding high we raised the question of when the Obama bubble would burst.  Without question, the bubble has burst.  The question is if the Obama campaign can reverse the Romney momentum. 

While the President maintains a slight advantage under our models, THE TREND IS NOT OBAMA'S FRIEND.  For a number of days we have compared the results of our state based model with those of Nate Silver at his New York Times blog fivethirtyeight.com.  While fivethirtyeight has shown the President halting Romney's momentum, we find no evidence that is true.

We will post an updated chart comparing our results with those of fivethrityeight when Nate updates his model.

While the race for President is foremost in the mind of citizens, the race for control of the United States Senate is of great significance.  Our state based model currently projects Republicans with 50 seats after the election with a range of 49-50. 

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