Special Morning Update: Updated data used in the ElectionMarkets Presidential race models. The state based simulation shows Romney at 266 electoral votes to the President's 272. (Distribution of outcomes chart posted below.) Romney won in 44% of the simulations. The most frequently observed outcome was 268.
As I have explained previously the model forecast is the median forecast. Significantly, on the maximum price point Romney garnered 273 electoral votes. This is the model's first showing of more than the magic 270 for Romney at any of the pricing points. The low end price point showed Romney with 259 electoral votes.
As I have explained previously the model forecast is the median forecast. Significantly, on the maximum price point Romney garnered 273 electoral votes. This is the model's first showing of more than the magic 270 for Romney at any of the pricing points. The low end price point showed Romney with 259 electoral votes.
For the last several days, I have given a chart that tracked our model estimates with Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com fore and now casts. Here is how they stack up as of last night. The ElectionMarkets model doesn't paint as pretty of a picture for the President as Silver's model does.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Please keep it clean; on topic; show respect for others. Comments are moderated.