President Senate Update 10-08

The numbers and a couple of quick observations.

President.
Macro Model
Probability of Victory
Obama 63.9%
Romney 36.1%
Electoral Votes
Obama 303
Romney 235
Micro Model (State based)
Electoral Votes Median
Obama 297
Romney 241
Electoral Votes Most Frequent
Obama 294
Romney 244

U.S. Senate Micro Simulation
Median estimate 49 Republicans
Most frequent 49 Republicans
Note: Probability of 50+ Republicans approximately 40%.

One interesting question over this week will be how Gallup releasing likely voter tracking impacts perceptions. Another will clearly be how voters perceive VP debate. Unlike 2008, voters have not been conditioned to dismiss Ryan in the way they were conditioned to dismiss, unfairly in my view, Sarah Palin.