I mentioned earlier today that Mitt Romney's post-debate momentum under both the ElectionMarkets Moscow and micro models appeared to continue in Wednesday's trading. In the final analysis it did.
As of Wednesday evening our macro model has Obama 295 Romney 243 -- unchanged from Tuesday evening. Romney's probability of victory rose slightly to 37.6%.
However on our State based micro simulation model Romney continues his advance. Our Wednesday night read has the race at Obama 287 Romney 251. This represents a gain of 4 electoral vows for Romney from yesterday's 291 - 247 Obama advantage. Romney wins 24.9% of the simulations. The chart below shows the distribution of outcomes.
The state-based model of Senate contest shows Republicans emerging from the election with 49 Senators unchanged from yesterday. The probability of Republicans emerging from the election with 50+ Senators rose to 48.1%.
As of Wednesday evening our macro model has Obama 295 Romney 243 -- unchanged from Tuesday evening. Romney's probability of victory rose slightly to 37.6%.
However on our State based micro simulation model Romney continues his advance. Our Wednesday night read has the race at Obama 287 Romney 251. This represents a gain of 4 electoral vows for Romney from yesterday's 291 - 247 Obama advantage. Romney wins 24.9% of the simulations. The chart below shows the distribution of outcomes.
The state-based model of Senate contest shows Republicans emerging from the election with 49 Senators unchanged from yesterday. The probability of Republicans emerging from the election with 50+ Senators rose to 48.1%.
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