If VP Biden stopped the bleeding for his boss, the InTrade markets evidently didn't get the memo.
While there isn't any polling data yet to determine if the Veep fired up the base, our modeling of InTrade data suggests that the President's electoral position continues to deteriorate.
Macro Model
Our macro model evaluates top line InTrade data to measure the state of the race. The probability of the President winning reelection declined to 60% in tonight's data run. This is down from nearly 80% a couple of weeks ago. On the electoral vote count the President's advantage has declined to 295-243. This represents a decline of 25 electoral votes from our Pre-debate reading on October 3 when the President held a 320-218 advantage.
State Based Micro Simulation Model
The deterioration of the Obama position is especially pronounced. Before the first Presidential debate, the President held an advantage of 313-225. Tonight's data run shows the President's advantage down to 283-255 -- a gain of 30 electoral votes for Mitt Romney.
Most encouraging for the Romney campaign is the fact that his gains have been powered by improving swing state prospects. Romney has gone from underdog to favorite to varying degrees in Colorado, Florida, and Virginia. Romney has also narrowed significantly the President's probability of victory in Ohio and Iowa. In both Iowa and Ohio the President's probability of winning the State has dipped below 60%.
You can find the electoral vote distribution of our simulation as well as a table showing estimate of Romney's probability of victory in each State.
A Brief Look at the Senate
Our state based simulation model has been relatively stable showing a median estimate of a two seat pickup bringing the Republican Senate count to 49.
Our model looks at a generates a range of probabilities in each State. At the low end of the pricing model Republicans would end up with 48 seats. At the upper end the model shows a 51 seat Republican Senate. This represents no change at the median and low points of the pricing range. The high end estimate of 51 represents a gain of one seat from yesterday.
The cumulative distribution of Republican seat outcomes is shown below.
While there isn't any polling data yet to determine if the Veep fired up the base, our modeling of InTrade data suggests that the President's electoral position continues to deteriorate.
Macro Model
Our macro model evaluates top line InTrade data to measure the state of the race. The probability of the President winning reelection declined to 60% in tonight's data run. This is down from nearly 80% a couple of weeks ago. On the electoral vote count the President's advantage has declined to 295-243. This represents a decline of 25 electoral votes from our Pre-debate reading on October 3 when the President held a 320-218 advantage.
State Based Micro Simulation Model
The deterioration of the Obama position is especially pronounced. Before the first Presidential debate, the President held an advantage of 313-225. Tonight's data run shows the President's advantage down to 283-255 -- a gain of 30 electoral votes for Mitt Romney.
Most encouraging for the Romney campaign is the fact that his gains have been powered by improving swing state prospects. Romney has gone from underdog to favorite to varying degrees in Colorado, Florida, and Virginia. Romney has also narrowed significantly the President's probability of victory in Ohio and Iowa. In both Iowa and Ohio the President's probability of winning the State has dipped below 60%.
You can find the electoral vote distribution of our simulation as well as a table showing estimate of Romney's probability of victory in each State.
A Brief Look at the Senate
Our state based simulation model has been relatively stable showing a median estimate of a two seat pickup bringing the Republican Senate count to 49.
Our model looks at a generates a range of probabilities in each State. At the low end of the pricing model Republicans would end up with 48 seats. At the upper end the model shows a 51 seat Republican Senate. This represents no change at the median and low points of the pricing range. The high end estimate of 51 represents a gain of one seat from yesterday.
The cumulative distribution of Republican seat outcomes is shown below.
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