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Thursday, October 14, 2010

GOP AT NEW HIGH IN HOUSE ESTIMATES; SENATE DEMS IMPROVE PROSPECTS

Expected Republican gains in the House rose on our midpoint estimate to a projected 232 seats.  The low point estimate rose to 231 seats and the upper point estimate rose to 232 seats.  The projections represent highs on all three measures. 

Republicans did not fare so well on the Senate side of the ledger.  Republican seat projections declined on both our macro and micro model estimates to midpoint estimates of 49.0 and 47.9 seats respectively.  Our models still suggest that the final Senate seat count will come down to a limited number of seats.  Our models estimate of probabilities for a Republican win in those seats are displayed in the table below.