Vote In Our Poll -- Movie Night at the White House

Don't forget to vote in our "Movie Night at the White House" poll and encourage all your friends and colleagues to vote.  The poll will remain open for approximately one week.  And during the last week of the campaign, we'll have a couple of polls to allow you to contribute the "wisdom of crowds" in forecasting the election results.  The premise of our poll is that election night is going to be a downer for Democrats so the President and Vice President decide to watch a movie at the White House instead of the returns.  Which movie will they pick? Oh, and if you think we omitted one we should have included, please email your selection to us at electionmarkets@gmail.com.  Now to the results.

Today was another day of basically sideways movement.  Republicans remain solidly positioned to take control of the House posting an 85.3% probability of success today.  The median estimate for pickups was 55 in today's run (177 is the base from which the InTrade contacts work).

The Senate side picture isn't quite as bright for Republicans as Democrats have clawed their way back from the brink of minority status over the past week.  Our simulation of all 37 races, which we run 10,000 times for each of four pricing points, suggests that Democrats should be considered a narrow favorite to elect the Senate's Majority Leader.  The data does suggest that if they maintain control they are likely to be electing a new Majority Leader as Senator Harry Reid has moved from being a slight favorite to a slight underdog with just over two weeks remaining in the campaign.   If and when InTrade offers a contract on who the Majority Leader will be we'll attempt to offer an analysis of that race.  The top candidates appear to be Senator Charles (Chuck) Schumer from New York and Senator Richard Durbin (the current Majority Whip).  Should such a contest emerge, it will be interesting to see how Democrats explain a vote for the man often dubbed the "Senator from Wall Street" after pillorying the financial sector during the campaign.

Democrats' prospects of maintaining outright control of the Senate (not counting Independents who caucus with them) has staged a mini rally over the past week.  The rally has come largely on the back of market perceptions that Democrats have improved their position markedly in several key Senate races.  Our model still suggests that the battle for the Senate will come down to between four and six seats.  The broader group of six, represented in the table below, includes California, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Washington, and West Virginia.  Another seat that polling suggests might deserve to be in this mix, but not our market analysis, is Alaska.  Polling suggests that thre is increased risk that Senator Murkowski's write-in candidacy has given Democrats a fighting chance in Alaska.

Our micro and macro models are currently projecting a post-election Republican seat count of 48 or 49.  As we mentioned in a previous post, an interesting factor to watch in connection with the Senate contests is the projected Republican gains in the House.  Many commentators have suggested that it is within the realm of posibility for Republicans to gain in excess of 70 seats.  Our model doesn't project that high of a gain at this point, but it could by election day.  Often some of the largest moves in market perceptions around the margins appear in the last week of the campaign.  If the trend is strong enough to produce Republican gains in the House of more than 70 seats, then it is very likely that Democrats will see their position diminish significantly in the Senate.

The chart to the left shows our micro model's trend over the past month.  The question is whether this represents a temporary step back of just a consolidation.  You will notice that prior retreats during the past month have been quickly followed by a resumption of the upward trend. 


The two charts below show a comparison of our micro model's outcome distributions for today compared with a month ago.  While the press coverage of the election has presented a story line of a Democratic surge, compared with a month ago, Democrats are in a more precarious position today than then.

Make sure you vote in our poll for "Movie Night at the White House" and encourage others to do the same.