Sunday Night Special: Angle Poised to be 50th GOP Senator; Rossi Knocking on Door for 51st

A couple of days ago, the situation was reversed -- and we may see several more reversals in the days to come.  Today's analysis of InTrade contract data shows Sharon Angle pulling slightly ahead of Senate Majority Harry Reid and now stands at a 51% probability of victory.  This is a signficant improvement from the 37% probability of victory she had declined to in mid-September.

Less than three weeks ago our model gave Rossi a 31% chance of victory; today our model assigned a probability of victory of 49.9%.  Rossi did briefly surpass the 50% threshold two days ago.  This race remains incredibly tight not only in the polls, but in our estimates as well.  Our model suggests that Matt Kirk would be the 49th GOP Senator and assigns him a 55% chance of victory -- clearly still in the toss up category.

On the House side, Republicans are in a strong position according to our models.  Based on our analysis of InTrade data Republicans now have a nearly 77% chance of winning control of the House of Representatives.

Today our model estimates that Republicans will hold between 228 and 231 seats in the next Congress.  This would represent a pickup of between 51 and 54 seats from the 177 they held following the 2008 election.

As noted yesterday, our analysis of InTrade data suggests that Republicans have a roughly 1/3 chance of gaining 60 or more seats.

If you want to see some more of today's charts, click read more below.


House

Senate