Republicans continue to poised to take control of the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections. Based on our model's analysis of data from the InTrade prediction markets, Republicans are projected to increase their seat count to 235 seats. This would represent a gain of 58 seats from the base of 177 they held following the 2008 elections.
Republicans continue to enjoy a better than 50% chance of winning 5 out of 7 closely contested races. Were they to win all 5 they would end up holding 50 Senate seats in the new Congress. At present Democrats have better than a 70% chance of winning in both Washington and California. While Democrats have to be considered favorites to hold those seats polling data suggests the races remain close.
Our micro model is currently projecting 48.3 Republican Senate seats, while the macro model clocked in at 48.9 seats.
We can expect to see some renewed volatility in the markets this week as they respond to new polling data and rumours surrounding developments in the individual Senate races. In particular, we will be watching for new polling data in our list of key races and also new data from Delaware and Connecticut. While Republican candidates are currently priced at less than a 10% probability of winning, we could see an uptick in prices if there appears to be any favorable movement in the polls in those two races.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Please keep it clean; on topic; show respect for others. Comments are moderated.