Republicans HIt New Highs in House Projection; Senate Path Narrowing

House GOP Seat Projection at New High

Based on current InTrade data, our model projects a Republican seat count range of 236 to 237.  The Midpoint estimate comes in at 236 -- an increase of 59 over the post-2008 election seat count.  The low end estimate, also 236, and the high end estimate of 237 represent new highs in our model's estimate.   The probability of a Republican takeover of the House of Representatives stands at 89.5%.

Based on prior observation, we believe that we are likely to see continuing changes in our model's seat count estimate, but would expect trading in the House control contract markets to trade in a fairly narrow range over the next few days.

New polling data has been a mixed bag of news over the last few days.  In some cases, it appears previously believed endangered Dems may be holding on -- even if by a thread.  However, other races have delivered surprising information for Democrats.  Of particular note, Rep. Rick Bouncher (VA-9) has seen his lead in polling evaporate over the past month.  A previously reported 10 point advantage now registers at a one point deficit according to Survey USA polling.  In California, Rep. Jim Costa (CA-20) in what was once viewed as a safe Democratic seat now finds himself trailing and in serious jeopardy of defeat.

Republicans' Narrow Senate Path

Our micro model's simulation suggest a midpoint estimate of 48.5 Republican seats (see graph at left), while our macro model simulation pegs Republicans as emerging with 49 seats.  This is consistent with our model's analysis of individual races in which our midpoint estimates peg Republican probabilities at above 60% in enough races to bring the Republican seat count to 49.  Unfortunately, for Republicans, the model suggests that the three seats most in play for Republicans have current probabilities of under 40%.  Republicans need to win two of those three seats to win control.  The following table and graph illustrate our model's current evaluation of the state of those and four other races that are generally regarded as this year's Senate battleground.  Recent action has moved Pennsylvania away from Democrats, but we will continue to include it in our list based upon our model's view of volatility and volatility potential in the InTrade markets.

Random Thoughts



As far as pundit and pollster analysis goes, the last two days have seen some interesting observations and data on the electoral environment.  Yesterday, Nate Silver offered the following at FiveThirty Eight.com in answering the question Are Democrats Overachieving in the Senate?. 

Right now, among the 37 Senate elections, we have Republicans favored in 25, Democrats favored in 11, and one (Colorado) that’s too close to call. If Democrats have a relatively good election night, they will win about one-third of the available Senate races. And if anything, the states that are voting for Senate this year are slightly blue-leaning. If the entire Senate were up for re-election in this political climate, the Republicans would be favored to earn a filibuster-proof majority, and might even earn a veto-proof majority! Fortunately for Democrats, that’s not how the system works. (Maybe some of our readers could go though the list of 63 senators that are not up for re-election and guess which ones they’d expect to lose if they were. It could be kind of fun.)  emphasis added

Data released by Gallup today seems to offer a similar view of just how favorable the makeup of this year's electorate may be to Republicans.  Gallup noted at 2010 Electorate Still Looking More Republican Than in the Past that:

Gallup's latest figures on the composition of the 2010 electorate suggest that, consistent with an earlier Gallup report, those voting in this year's congressional elections across the country will be similar in gender, age, and education to 2006 voters. At the same time, they will be substantially more Republican in their party orientation, and more conservative than has been the case in the past several midterms.

The Gallup post is worth a read.  As noted here several times in the past, this year's election will be a REAL test of pollsters' likely voter models.  It is unfortunate that all of the public pollsters tracked by Real Clear Politics and others don't provide as much transparency as Public Policy Polling (PPP), Rasmussen and SurveyUSA in terms of the demographic composition of survey respondents contained in their likely voter polls.   The reality is that such data would allow analysts and others more flexibility in placing "value" on a particular poll.