Forecast: Tsunami Warning Issued for House; Storm Clouds Gather in Senate

Post for October 29, 2010 --


New polling in both the House and Senate served to both clarify and obscure expected results for this coming Tuesday.
  
Polling in Maine by Critical Insights shows potentially close races in both of the state's two Congressional districts: 

• ME-1:   Republican Dean Scontras  leading (but well within the margin of error) Rep. Chellie Pingree by a margin of 45-41.  Two weeks ago the same pollster showed Pingree leading by 45-40.  The significant note is that Critical Insights' poll from the middle of May showed Pingree with a 24 point lead.
• ME-2:   Republican Jason Levesque trails incumbent Democratic Rep. Mike Michaud by a margin of 44-40 (also within the margin of error).  Two weeks ago Critical Insights' polled the district and found Michaud leading by 19.

Significance: If Democrats were to lose both of these seats in a state where polls close relatively early, Republican gains will be massive.


As it is, our model's evaluation of InTrade data suggests only "huge" gains of approximately 60 seats from their post 2008 election level.  Friday's analysis gives Republicans 237 seats in the next Congress.  The Republican probability of taking the House 92.3% under our model.  On our 2006 vintage InTrade analysis on the Friday preceding the election, Democrats' chance of taking the House was 72%.  Democrats gains 31 seats (compared to post 2004 elections) that year.    The probability of that size of gain (30 or more seats) on Friday before the election was 35.4%.  That is roughly the same probability our model generates for gains of 65+ using InTrade data based on Friday data.   Non-scientific observation: Friday before election data appears to have UNDERESTIMATED election day results in the House. 


Friday's Daily Snapshot and House Pictures

Our Senate analysis makes Democrats the favorites to maintain control of the Senate.  Our analysis of InTrade data suggests that Republicans will hold at least 49 seats.  Politically, this means Democrats control; for InTrading purposes it means Neither Party to Control contract would prevail.  In fact, our modelling suggests that on a tighter trend analysis, Republicans may well end up with 50 seats or better.

Here are the Senate pictures.

Increasingly, the data seems to suggest that Pennsylvania's appearance on the screen ten days ago was a "false warning."  Data increasingly suggests Pennsylvania may be well beyond Democratic efforts to save the seat.   There are increasing signs that recent polling data showing Washington within a point either way are no longer the exceptions, but the consensus among pollsters.


Questions of the day.   Add your input and observations.




1.   Will Senator Lisa Murkowski's write-in bid cost Republicans control of the Senate?

InTrade data currently favors Lisa Murkowski to win, but the situation is volatile.  Democrats are still an underdog in the seat, BUT the DSCC is spending money there.  The Republican Senate nightmare ... win two of WV, WA, and CA ... and then find out you don't control the Senate because of Alaska.  Think it's possible? Probable? Or No Way that Happens? 

2.   What Senate race will be the biggest surprise on Tuesday?