A Republican Senate Retreat? Or Preparing for a Final Assault?

Republicans were at a general standstill in our models' evaluation of their prospects to take control of the Senate.  The projected midpoint estimate of Republican Senate seats was unchanged in both the micro and macro models at 48.3 and 49.0 seats respectively.   While the toplines were stable there was considerable variance in individual races.

Same Pollster Different Day and State

A couple of days ago, Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling (PPP) released a poll showing the Democrat with a significant lead.  The other day the state was West Virginia.  On Tuesday, the state was California.  Their poll showing Senator Boxer with a 9 point lead and news of Republican Carly Fiorina's hospitalization triggered a 13.8% decline in our model's midpoint probability estimate for the Republican.   One interesting aspect of this poll is that unlike Survey USA and Rasmussen Reports recent surveys, PPP estimates an electorate in California that is not only more Democratic than in the 2006 midterm elections, but more Democratic than the California electorat was in 2008.   PPP's partisan split in this poll was 47% Democrat, 34% Republican, and 19% Independent/Other.  In 2006 exit polls Democrats made up 41% of the electorate and in 2008 made up 42%.  At 34%, their estimate of the Republican share of the electorate is consistent with Rasmussen (34%) and Survey USA (35%) as well as 2006 exit polls (35%). 

We will have more to say on this at a later time.  But here is a table illustrating the differences.

In the House, our model currently projects between 234 and 236 Republican House seats following the election and a probability of House control that is just shy of 90%.  Our graphs of the trendlines for House and Senate seat estimates follow.  Also, check our InTrade Portfolio page to check out additional trades we made today.

Lastly, by popular demand we've updated our charts from a while back showing the Iowa Electronic Markets' probability of control change in the House and Senate compared with 2006.