Republican House 90%; 49 Republican Senators

90% Probability of a Republican House


Pundits are almost universal in predicting a Republican House takeover next Tuesday.  Our model based on InTrade market data agrees pegging Republicans as a 90% favorite to do so.  The House debate right now centers around the question of how high the Republican wave in House elections will be.  Some pundits argue that Republicans will only capture the House by a narrow majority.  Others argue that the GOP will end with their highest seat count since the 1940s or earlier.  Right now our model projects Republicans holding 236 seats in the next Congress.  An important caveat -- our model suggests that the risk for greater losses by Democrats exceeds the risk of significantly smaller Republican gains.

Is Today's Republican Uptick in Races and Micro Model Beginning of a Rally?


Republicans saw an uptick in their prospects in our 7 key races, yet remain an underdog in their battle to claim the Senate.  Our macro and micro model projections are only separated by 1/10th of a seat in today's analysis of InTrade data.  The micro model projects 48.9 seats and the macro model 49.0 seats.  In short, our micro model is catching up with the macro model.  We would expect them to move in close tandem from this point forward.

As mentioned earlier, Republicans started to retrace lost ground in all seven of the most competitive -- or key -- Senate races.  Illinois, Washington, and West Virginia all saw Republican improvement of more than 3%.  However, in West Virginia and Washington as sizable gain is still required to push those seats into "Republican Favored" territory.  The table below summarizes our model's pricing of Republican probabilities in Thursday nights data run.

Here is our daily chart of this month's pricing movement for the seven races included in the above table.  As you can see, volatility remains and is likely to pick up in at least 4 of the 7 seats over the weekend.

Be sure to check out our InTrade Portfolio on our InTrade portfolio page.  Additional charts on House and Senate control probabilities are posted below.