Daily Update: InTrade Data Suggests Republican House Gains Like 1994
Our analysis of InTrade data today will likely put an extra spring in the step of House Republicans. Today's analysis projects that Republicans will hold between 228 and 233 seats in the next Congress. The midpoint estimate of 231 would mean gains on election day of the magnitude captured in the 1994 election. At the high end of our estimate (233), Republicans would hold the greatest number of seats since they entered the 80th Congress (1947) with 246 seats. The probability of Republicans taking the House based on our model's evaluation of InTrade data stands at a midpoint estimate of 77.6%.
Perhaps the most striking aspect of the model's evaluation today is that it assigns a probability range of 34.1% - 38.5% with a median of 36.3% that Republicans will capture more than 60 seats in November.
The question is whether markets are signalling the beginning of a major upward swing for Republicans or whether it is a temporary blip.
The Senate side of the ledger remains far more muddled. While it had appeared that Democrats were well positioned to maintain control, the InTrade markets are becoming increasingly skeptical of their ability to hold onto control without counting Lieberman and Sanders.
Our micro model pegged the likely Republican Senate seat count after the election at a median estimate of 48.2. The macro model registed a much more bullish reading projecting a range of median estimate of 49.3 seats.
More tomorrow on the individual races, but today's reading reconfirmed our emerging theme that Illinois, Nevada, and Washington are the most likely states to decide which party control the Senate in the next Congress.
Our macro model assigns a 24.5% probability of Senate control by Republicans. The micro version of the model assigns a median estimate of 7.4%.
OF NOTE --- Applying our final week screen to today's data with our micro (race by race) model yields a Republican seat count range of 50.0 - 50.2; and a probabilty of nearly 70% that Republicans will hold 50 or more seats. Under this screen the probability of Republican control rises to greater than 33%
