Throughout the evening and much of today, the twitter world was talking about the big bounce President Obama was getting in InTrade markets.
Our models show a slight uptick for the President, but the question is whether it represents a reversal of the trend or simply a pause in Mitt Romney's momentum.
Prior to the debate, our macro model showed the President with a 62% chance of re-election. Our state based micro simulation model pegged the President's electoral college advantage at 282-256. The most frequent outcome of the simulation was 275-263. Twenty four hours after the debate, the President's probability of victory on our macro model has increased to 65%.
Our state based micro simulation model showed the President's advantage in the electoral college at 284-254 -- a gain of 2 electoral votes since the debate. The most frequent outcome in our simulation was Obama winning 281-257.
The key question is whether this is a new inflection point in the race or merely a pause in the prior trend toward Romney. Overall, we would characterize the markets as giving the President a modest, but small gain post debate.
Our Senate simulation model continued to remain quite steady and projects Republicans with 49 seats. The range using our various pricing scenarios is 48-50.
You can see our charts on electoral vote distribution and Senate probabilities below.
Our models show a slight uptick for the President, but the question is whether it represents a reversal of the trend or simply a pause in Mitt Romney's momentum.
Prior to the debate, our macro model showed the President with a 62% chance of re-election. Our state based micro simulation model pegged the President's electoral college advantage at 282-256. The most frequent outcome of the simulation was 275-263. Twenty four hours after the debate, the President's probability of victory on our macro model has increased to 65%.
Our state based micro simulation model showed the President's advantage in the electoral college at 284-254 -- a gain of 2 electoral votes since the debate. The most frequent outcome in our simulation was Obama winning 281-257.
The key question is whether this is a new inflection point in the race or merely a pause in the prior trend toward Romney. Overall, we would characterize the markets as giving the President a modest, but small gain post debate.
Our Senate simulation model continued to remain quite steady and projects Republicans with 49 seats. The range using our various pricing scenarios is 48-50.
You can see our charts on electoral vote distribution and Senate probabilities below.
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