Yesterday we commented that our models showed the President with a quite modest one day bounce.
Our macro model saw the President's win probability rising to 65% from 62% on Wednesday evening. Our Thursday night update has that probability dropping back to 62%.
Prior to the debate our state based simulation gave the President a 282-256 electoral college advantage. On Wednesday evening we showed the President ticking up two electoral votes to 284. Our Thursday night model run puts the race at Obama 281 Romney 257.
Markets may change their views based upon upcoming events and new polls. Therefore we won't go as far as calling this the bounce that wasn't. For now we wii dub it "the bounce that isn't"
In the coming days we'll discuss some ancillary aspects of our micro model. Briefly, the model actually generates a range of implied probabilities for each state. The number we use for our comments use the median probability estimate.
We also run the model at the minimum and maxim price estate. In the last couple of days Romney's electoral vote count has exceeded 260. Today Romney clocked in at 263 electoral votes using the high end estimates and 251 at the low end.
The bottom line: our state based model continues to move incrementally toward Romney.
Our Senate model continues to be remarkably stable putting Republicans at 49 seats after the election with a range of 48-50.
Our macro model saw the President's win probability rising to 65% from 62% on Wednesday evening. Our Thursday night update has that probability dropping back to 62%.
Prior to the debate our state based simulation gave the President a 282-256 electoral college advantage. On Wednesday evening we showed the President ticking up two electoral votes to 284. Our Thursday night model run puts the race at Obama 281 Romney 257.
Markets may change their views based upon upcoming events and new polls. Therefore we won't go as far as calling this the bounce that wasn't. For now we wii dub it "the bounce that isn't"
In the coming days we'll discuss some ancillary aspects of our micro model. Briefly, the model actually generates a range of implied probabilities for each state. The number we use for our comments use the median probability estimate.
We also run the model at the minimum and maxim price estate. In the last couple of days Romney's electoral vote count has exceeded 260. Today Romney clocked in at 263 electoral votes using the high end estimates and 251 at the low end.
The bottom line: our state based model continues to move incrementally toward Romney.
Our Senate model continues to be remarkably stable putting Republicans at 49 seats after the election with a range of 48-50.
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