Romney Still Advancing. WillSlow and Steady Win the Race?

Posted a brief comment earlier today pointing out that our state based model unlike the 538 now and fore casts hadn't yet shown any halt to Romney's momentum.

After updating our data, our State based model has Romney gaining another electoral vote cutting the President's advantage to 280 to 258.
The most frequent result had Romney with 263 to Obama's 275. Posted below is our distribution chart and a chart comparing our model's results with those generated by Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.

Our macro model has the President's win probability dropping back to the pre-second debate level of 62%.

Our Senate forecast remains stubbornly fixed at 49 Republican Senators with a range of 48 - 50 seats for the Republicans. Our State based model still gives Republicans more than a 40% chance of ending up with 50 or more seats.