As political pundits prepare their debate analysis and campaigns ready their spin games, markets have taken a break. They too are waiting to see if President Obama is able to stop the Romney momentum.
ElectionMarkets will update our database before the debate so we can look for any signs of another inflection point in the race.
But on the night before the debate here's what our analysis of InTrade market data is saying.
President (macro model)
Probability of victory. O 62% R 38%
Electoral Votes. O 290 R 248
President (state based micro model)
Electoral Votes. O 285 R 253
Senate. Republican seats 49. Probability of 50+ 44%. 51+ 25%.
ElectionMarkets will update our database before the debate so we can look for any signs of another inflection point in the race.
But on the night before the debate here's what our analysis of InTrade market data is saying.
President (macro model)
Probability of victory. O 62% R 38%
Electoral Votes. O 290 R 248
President (state based micro model)
Electoral Votes. O 285 R 253
Senate. Republican seats 49. Probability of 50+ 44%. 51+ 25%.
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