On the House side, the model shows Republicans with a nearly 73% chance of taking control of the House of Representatives. In terms of Republican seats, the model produced one of its narrowest ranges this year, 225 - 227, with a midpoint estimate of 226.
If current trends were to continue until election day, the micro version of the model shows Republicans holding 50.1 seats. This puts Republicans on the cusp of gaining control of both the House and Senate. Based on current data Republicans are in a far better position to gain control of the Senate than Democrats were at this point in time during the 2006 election cycle.
The Republican pathway to Senate control, or conversely the shape of the Democrat's "firewall", is becoming more clearly defined. I will be discussing this in more detail over the next few days.
Charts are available after the break. Click Read More to view.
