With GOP win probabilities exceeding 40% in 28 of 37 races Senate control is within striking distance. Easiest path to 51 goes through Illinois, Nevada, Washington, and West Virginia. GOP over 50% in 2 of 4. GOP wins in all four would likely mean Senate control.
At this point GOP win probability exceeds 70% in 24 of 37 races; Dem win probability exceeds 70% in only 8 races. Daily charts follow.
For a detailed table of probability estimates for individual Senate races see the table below
