Republicans gave up a small amount of ground they had gained over the weekend, but remain well positioned to score major gains in the upcoming mid-term elections. In the House, Republicans remain above 70% probability of control and are projected to hold at least 226 seats in the next Congress. Of particular interest will be the impact on markets of today's Gallup generic ballot results -- Gallup's first read using their likely voter model. (http://www.gallup.com/poll/143363/GOP-Positioned-Among-Likely-Midterm-Voters.aspx)
On the Senate side of the ledger, both the macro and micro models showed a modest improvement for Democrats. GOP odds of controlling the Senate (based on the macro model) dropped below 20%. Howerver, as noted previously, both our model and the InTrade contracts would not consider a win by Senator Lisa Murkowski as a Republican win.
You can click on any of the charts below to enlarge them.
The following two charts show the current seat distributions in Senate races. Click on them to enlarge.
