While prediction markets do not presently give Republicans a very high probability of taking the Senate in the midterm elections, the markets do suggest that there is a clear path to that objective.
Much may change over the next 26 days, but at this point Republicans have a 70-plus percent chance of capturing six seats presently held by Democrats (Arkansas, Colorado, Indiana, Wisconsin, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).
In two other states where seats are held by Democrats (West Virginia and Illinois), Republicans have a better than 50% chance of winning.
Winning all those seats would get Republicans to 49 seats. The next two most likely wins for Republicans are in Nevada and Washington where Republican chances are above 40% -- certainly territory for real nervousness on the part of Democrats. From a straight statistical standpoint, the Republican probability of Republicans winning both is about one in five. However, that calculation assumes that the two races are independent events. Clearly, in a trend election where there is a major wave in one direction or the other, the events are not totally independent. For Democrats, the odds of winning both races are close to the odds of losing at Russian roulette on the first pull of the trigger. Good odds, but catastrophic results if you lose – not a game you want to play. Expect to see Democrats continue to pour resources into California and Connecticut in an attempt to purchase insurance. The data suggests that they should be just as worried about the New York Special Election seat as they are Connecticut and California.
The same analysis that gives Republicans a 19% chance of winning in both Nevada and Washington, produces a 68% chance that they win at least one out of the two and get to 50 or 51 seats.
Of course, this is highly speculative and will vary a great deal between now and November 2. Point is a fairly defined path to 51 does exist.
